
Will China Survive Demographic Winter?
Despite China’s recent belated attempt to reverse its impending population decline, it will probably not be able to stave off the resulting economic downturn. This is also the case across all heavily industrialised countries.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of newborns in China fell to a historic low last year, despite the government’s emphasis on raising the fertility rate. This leads many to ask, “Will China survive demographic winter?”
Ruth Institute Communications Director Don Feder said,
“Having spent decades using the most draconian methods to limit population growth, including forced abortions, Beijing is now desperate to increase fertility.”
Steep Decline
Last year, China recorded 10.62 million births, down from 12.02 million in 2020. Births barely exceeded the number of deaths (10.14 million). Feder remarked,
“Sometime in the next few years, China’s population will start to fall. Once that happens, descent could become rapid.”
Replacement fertility is 2.1. In 2020, China’s fertility rate was 1.3, one of the lowest in the world. Feder warned,
“Demographers say that once a nation’s total fertility rate goes below 1.3, recovery is impossible.”
He further noted:
“The proportion of China’s population over 60 is now 18.9%. That’s expected to more than double to 39% by 2050. What will the People’s Republic do when pensions for the elderly exceed taxes paid by workers? The nation is already experiencing a labor shortage.”
Too Little, Too Late
The regime is trying to address this by such policies as making it harder to get a vasectomy. Some hospitals refuse to perform the procedure unless the patient can prove he’s married and has children.
Local governments have offered longer maternity leaves and are organising matchmaking events. The latter will be hampered by the fact that, due to decades of the one-child policy and the traditional Chinese preference for male children, among 20-to 40-year-olds, men now outnumber women by 17.5 million.
Worldwide Problem
Feder observed,
“Beijing crippled its birthrate with its hideous one-child policy. But every industrialized nation is grappling with falling fertility. Elderly populations are rising while the number of young workers is falling. Who will do society’s vital work in a nation where fewer and fewer are born each year?”
Ruth Institute President Dr Jennifer Roback Morse, PhD, added,
“We at the Ruth Institute take this very seriously. For the past two years, we’ve had a speaker on Demographic Winter at our annual Summit for Survivors of the Sexual Revolution. Last year, we launched our Demographic Winter Resource Center. We invite everyone to check out this resource and educate themselves on a growing worldwide problem.”
___
Originally published at The Ruth Institute. Photo by Angela Roma from Pexels.
Recent Articles:
17 November 2025
2.7 MINS
Atheist Patrick John Lee wins a landmark UK tribunal ruling, defending his fact-based criticisms of Islam and free speech against professional sanctions over 84 tweets.
17 November 2025
4.6 MINS
Osiris Puerto Terry survived a brutal police shooting during Cuba’s 2021 protests. Now in exile, he fights for justice, exposing the regime’s decades-long repression of his family and dreams.
17 November 2025
5.4 MINS
Kevin Roberts’ handling of Tucker Carlson’s interview with Holocaust-denier Nick Fuentes reveals a crisis of moral leadership at the Heritage Foundation, exposing timidity, compromised judgement, and the erosion of principled conservatism.
17 November 2025
2.6 MINS
A big THANK YOU to the 64 dads, granddads and kids who joined us last weekend for the Dads4Kids Fun Camp. It was absolutely fantastic!!! Something amazing happens when dads get away from the everyday and create time with their kids.
14 November 2025
4.3 MINS
Who was responsible for the longest government shutdown in history? Look no further than those enraged at the news that it may soon end. “The Democratic base is seething,” reports Politico.
14 November 2025
5.7 MINS
South Australia’s Upper House has voted down Sarah Game's bill that sought to protect viable unborn babies from abortion, rejecting the measure by 8 votes to 11 on Wednesday night, 12 November.
14 November 2025
4 MINS
The Albanese Government’s rushed social media ban for under-16s takes effect in a month — but with no clear plan, no firm details, and plenty of political “cracks”.












































