Will China Survive Demographic Winter?
Despite China’s recent belated attempt to reverse its impending population decline, it will probably not be able to stave off the resulting economic downturn. This is also the case across all heavily industrialised countries.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of newborns in China fell to a historic low last year, despite the government’s emphasis on raising the fertility rate. This leads many to ask, “Will China survive demographic winter?”
Ruth Institute Communications Director Don Feder said,
“Having spent decades using the most draconian methods to limit population growth, including forced abortions, Beijing is now desperate to increase fertility.”
Steep Decline
Last year, China recorded 10.62 million births, down from 12.02 million in 2020. Births barely exceeded the number of deaths (10.14 million). Feder remarked,
“Sometime in the next few years, China’s population will start to fall. Once that happens, descent could become rapid.”
Replacement fertility is 2.1. In 2020, China’s fertility rate was 1.3, one of the lowest in the world. Feder warned,
“Demographers say that once a nation’s total fertility rate goes below 1.3, recovery is impossible.”
He further noted:
“The proportion of China’s population over 60 is now 18.9%. That’s expected to more than double to 39% by 2050. What will the People’s Republic do when pensions for the elderly exceed taxes paid by workers? The nation is already experiencing a labor shortage.”
Too Little, Too Late
The regime is trying to address this by such policies as making it harder to get a vasectomy. Some hospitals refuse to perform the procedure unless the patient can prove he’s married and has children.
Local governments have offered longer maternity leaves and are organising matchmaking events. The latter will be hampered by the fact that, due to decades of the one-child policy and the traditional Chinese preference for male children, among 20-to 40-year-olds, men now outnumber women by 17.5 million.
Worldwide Problem
Feder observed,
“Beijing crippled its birthrate with its hideous one-child policy. But every industrialized nation is grappling with falling fertility. Elderly populations are rising while the number of young workers is falling. Who will do society’s vital work in a nation where fewer and fewer are born each year?”
Ruth Institute President Dr Jennifer Roback Morse, PhD, added,
“We at the Ruth Institute take this very seriously. For the past two years, we’ve had a speaker on Demographic Winter at our annual Summit for Survivors of the Sexual Revolution. Last year, we launched our Demographic Winter Resource Center. We invite everyone to check out this resource and educate themselves on a growing worldwide problem.”
___
Originally published at The Ruth Institute. Photo by Angela Roma from Pexels.
Recent Articles:
22 July 2026
4 MINS
Although FIFA is finished for 2026, when the replays begin, this year’s tournament should be remembered as the World Cup for Christ. FIFA WC26 saw a record number of Christian players put their faith on the field.
22 July 2026
5.4 MINS
Also known as “Uncle Lindsey” among the democratic Iranian-Australian community, Senator Graham was a man known for his relentless pursuit of democratic values throughout the world.
22 July 2026
2.7 MINS
We need to talk about the situation in Tasmania and how we desperately need prayer. The Greens have introduced a “Conversion Practices Prohibition Bill” into the Tasmanian Parliament that will have devastating ramifications for Christians, parents, and all those who, of their own volition, want to break with the current cultural state-sanctioned morality.
21 July 2026
8.2 MINS
We don't talk about social atomisation, do we? Most of us would be hard pressed to define it. Yet it is reshaping our society in ways we barely acknowledge — fragmenting our communities, eroding our connections, and leaving us isolated in the midst of billions.
21 July 2026
7.7 MINS
In countries with voluntary organ donation systems, patients wait months or years for a transplant. In China, hospitals guarantee matching organs within weeks. That statistical impossibility reveals a horrifying truth: China operates an industrial-scale organ harvesting operation — with the tacit complicity of the Western world.
20 July 2026
19.6 MINS
Rubio told delegates that far-left terrorism, long dismissed as a “partisan fiction”, has escalated into assassinations and coordinated attacks across the globe, and that the ideology behind the violence is a “poisonous resentment”, aimed at destroying what greater men have built.
20 July 2026
5.9 MINS
The United States' election system is "so broken and so vulnerable that no one can possibly defend it" — so said President Trump Thursday night, as he released declassified intelligence alleging Chinese interference, ballot fraud, and a years-long cover-up by intelligence agencies.
